11:14 PM: Reporting live from Thursday night, I figured I might as well give my prediction for the election. So, here's a map, with much thanks to the US Election Atlas:
(Obama 378, McCain 160)
First off, a couple of technical notes. You may notice that Obama is red and McCain blue. That's how the map assigns colours to the candidates. Also, it makes more sense if you think about it. After all, the liberal party in many nations are red, while conservatives tend towards blue. It's just reversed in the US.
Anyway, I see Obama winning all Kerry states plus New Mexico and Iowa easily. In addition, Virginia and Colorado appear to be likely Democratic, while Nevada and Florida have a substantial lean as well. Most polling in North Carolina and Missouri show a lead for Obama, though they will likely be close races. Then there's Indiana. It hasn't gone for the Democrat since the Lyndon B. Johnson landslide of 1964, but a combination of a large amount of working-class voters and its proximity to Obama's home state of Illinois could see it flip.
Finally, there's Montana. The Mountain West isn't the Republican stranglehold the last couple of elections will make you want to believe. In fact, Clinton won this state in 1992. It's a very progressive state and has two Democratic senators and a Democratic governor. Furthermore, Montana is not scared to support third-party candidates -- after all, 30% of the vote went to Ross Perot in 1992 -- which means that people like Bob Barr and Ron Paul could siphon votes from the Republican ticket. I wouldn't be surprised if the race goes either way in this state.
Tomorrow: More stuff. Probably Senate predictions. Or something like that.
6:31 AM: All right, it's Election Day. Obama already has a slight lead in New Hampshire, thanks to Dixsville Notch. I can assure you that that means nothing.
Meanwhile, my predictions on the Senate:
Safe Dem: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Virginia, West Virginia
Lean Dem: North Carolina, Oregon
Tossup: Minnesota
Lean GOP: Georgia, Kentucky
Safe GOP: Alabama, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi (both races), Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Wyoming (both races)
No surprises here, hopefully. The Mississippi special election may end up being tighter than what I've said, but I have a feeling that it will remain in Republican hands. Minnesota is weird, thanks to an independent who has been polling about 15%. There will probably be some people who will jump ship, so to speak. The thing is, no one is sure how all this will work out in this already close election, so the best thing to do is wait. Finally, Georgia has a runoff if neither candidate gets 50% of the vote, which could happen in a close race thanks to a Libertarian candidate. However, it probably won't make that much of a difference.
And so, my Senate prediction: Democrats 57, Republicans 41, Other 2.
3:44 PM: Am I the only one who's sick of hearing about "Joe the Plumber"?
3:50 PM: The BBC is reporting that some polling places in North Carolina will be open for an hour later, until 8:30 PM.
3:55 PM: Lots of issues with people having to take provisional ballots. This shouldn't affect the Presidential race as it did last time due to the lead that Obama has, but I could easily see a few House or Senate results depend on how these votes are counted. Regardless, expect a big battle in the courts.
4:03 PM: Technical note: The page will now refresh once a minute. Also, when it refreshes, it will automatically go to the bottom of the page.
4:08 PM: Also, for those of you wondering what a provisional ballot is: If a voter is denied at a polling station for whatever reason, he can cast a provisional ballot if he feels like he is entitled to vote. After the polls close, the vote is reviewed and if it is valid, it is counted.
4:18 PM: A thought about calling races: A person in line at a polling station when it closes can still vote, even if it takes three hours after closing. I bet that many networks won't realise that fact and project a winner of several races right when polls close. Now, in 2000 and even 2004 this wasn't a problem; a person in line won't have reliable access to news. However, in this digital and mobile age, someone can go to an election site and see what's going on. If, say, Pennsylvania is called at 8:15 and people are still in line then, someone might see that the state has been called and leave the line. This probably won't affect anything on the Presidential level, but it could make a difference in a close House race.
4:47 PM: A light drizzle here in Northern Virginia, for what it's worth.
4:50 PM: Presidential result map and Senate result map.
4:53 PM: I intend to update it real-time, or as real-time as possible. I've got CNN, MSNBC, FOX, CBS, and BBC election maps up.
4:55 PM: CNN, feel free to find some "facts" that we don't know already.
5:03 PM: Early voting in Colorado reportedly was 80% of all votes cast in 2004. If that's any sign, turnout is going to be huge.
5:04 PM: Why are exit polls being released before any polls have closed?
5:10 PM: No, I am not going to do a map for the 435 Congressional races.
5:13 PM: Depending on what happens tonight, we might see the Dow hit 10,000 tomorrow.
5:21 PM: Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport is the reason why people usually wait until a person dies before naming something after him.
5:25 PM: The Onion is awesome.
5:30 PM: There has been talk about the Bradley Effect -- that people will say they will vote for Obama while actually voting for McCain so they can not make themselves appear racist. However, there was no such thing in the primaries -- in fact, Obama outperformed the polls.
5:39 PM: Polls will close in parts of Kentucky and Indiana in less than half an hour. No one should be calling any Presidential or Senatorial races yet, since polls will still be open in the parts of the state in the Central Time Zone. However, there is one race to watch, and that is Indiana's 3rd district. Right now, it's leaning Republican, but if the Dems have a good day today, they will be able to pick up a seat.
5:48 PM: For those who are watching exit polls like hawks, don't. They are only very general indicators. In 2000, exit polls showed Gore winning Alabama.
5:53 PM: I want one of those giant touch-screen thingies for Christmas.
6:00 PM: It's 6:00...
6:05 PM: Good. No one has called Kentucky yet.
6:10 PM: I wish someone would talk about IN-03. It's a great canary.
6:19 PM: Fox is reporting a few returns from Kentucky. There's not much, but it will be interesting how much the Senate and Presidential races differ from each other. Well, once the map loads...
6:22 PM: With 4000 votes in, McCain is leading 57%-40% while McConnell is ahead 52%-48% in the Senate race.
6:23 PM: These early results probably mean very little, but the Kentucky Senate race will be determined by how many people vote for McCain and Lunsford.
6:25 PM: At 7:00 PM, polls will close in Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Vermont, the rest of Kentucky and Indiana, and parts of New Hampshire and Florida.
6:31 PM: Races to watch: IN-Pres, KY-Sen, KY-02, VA-Pres, VA-02, VA-05, SC-01, GA-Pres, GA-Sen, GA-08, FL-13, FL-16, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25. All of these went for the Republican in their previous elections except for GA-08 and the scandal-infested FL-16.
6:37 PM: No results in for IN-03 yet. Also, results are coming in from Indiana as well, but no states called by anyone yet.
6:39 PM: According to CNN's webpage, LA-04 will not be holding an election tonight.
6:40 PM: The problem with the Reverend Wright ads: We've all had to deal with them during the Primaries. We already know about him. He's old hat.
6:48 PM: Good news: Google Maps uses the AP for reporting purposes, which means that I have a new source of data.
6:52 PM: Obama is doing very well compared to Kerry in Indiana, at least with the results in so far. Credit to FiveThirtyEight.
6:57 PM: Only three minutes left...
7:02 PM: Obama wins Vermont, McCain wins Kentucky. Surprise, surprise.
7:06 PM: And the Senate has been called in Virginia and South Carolina. Again, as expected.
7:10 PM: Y'know, I should have thought about adding a comments section. If anyone has a good place where I could put one up, let me know.
7:13 PM: There are now links to the maps on the bottom of the page.
7:18 PM: Poll closings at 7:30: North Carolina, West Virginia, Ohio.
7:21 PM: Races to watch: NC-Pres, NC-Sen, NC-Gov, WV-02, OH-Pres, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, OH-16.
7:27 PM: South Carolina has yet to be called by anyone...
7:31 PM: According to CNN, 18% of the vote are going to third parties...
7:33 PM: In Florida, that is.
7:33 PM: Maps has been updated.
7:36 PM: Working on a comments page...
7:43 PM: Comments page! Please be nice, though.
7:45 PM: CBS calls West Virginia for McCain.
7:49 PM: 8:00 Poll closings: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, and parts of Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, and Texas.
7:52 PM: NBC calls South Carolina for McCain.
7:53 PM: BBC has followed suit.
7:55 PM: 5 minutes until the deluge...
7:57 PM: Everyone has called South Carolina for McCain now.
7:57 PM: And Fox News has preemptively called a bunch of states.
8:00 PM: 8:00!
8:02 PM: Alabama, Mississippi too close to call, according to CNN
8:03 PM: CBS calls New Hampshire for Obama.
8:04 PM: Actually, everyone except for CNN has called it.
8:05 PM: NBC has called Pennsylvania for Obama.
8:06 PM: The Presidential map has been updated.
8:09 PM: NBC calls the New Hampshire Senate for the Democrats. No surprise Republican surge here.
8:09 PM: And Senate map has been updated.
8:15 PM: BBC calls the North Carolina Senate for the Democrats. Meanwhile, Kentucky and Georgia are still too close to call.
8:18 PM: Only Arkansas closes at 8:30. I like.
8:20 PM: Alabama has yet to be called. This is bad news for McCain.
8:25 PM: Still close in Virginia and North Carolina. We could be here for a while.
8:30 PM: Arkansas is too early to call. Shouldn't it be an easy win for McCain?
8:33 PM: Some networks have called Arkansas and Alabama for McCain. Also, NBC now has called North Carolina Senate for the Dems as well.
8:36 PM: Indiana will take a while to call, as they take forever to tally results.
8:37 PM: NBC calls Georgia for McCain, an hour and a half after the fact.
8:38 PM: CNN is slow at calling races.
8:39 PM: The speed at which these races have been called signal bad news for the Republicans.
8:41 PM: CNN calls Pennsylvania for Obama, the last to do so.
8:44 PM: Guess who has not called Alabama yet?
8:47 PM: 9:00 closures: New York, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Wyoming.
8:49 PM: The House is not really doing much so far.
8:50 PM: West Virginia has yet to be called by most networks. This is probably bad news for McCain in Ohio.
8:51 PM: Note: All times are EST. Because I live in the Eastern Time Zone.
8:52 PM: Georgia could very well end up in a runoff election.
8:53 PM: CNN: The Leader in Lag
8:54 PM: MSNBC projection: Democrats end up with 261 seats, a gain of about 25.
8:58 PM: It's been an hour, and Mississippi has yet to be called by anyone.
8:59 PM: Fox News: Obama is down 2,000 in the popular vote out of a total of about 20,000,000 reported.
9:00 PM: It's projection time!
9:02 PM: North Dakota called for McCain, as per CNN.
9:02 PM: Lots of Democrats hoping for an upset there.
9:05 PM: Both maps updated.
9:08 PM: MSNBC calls Arkansas for McCain.
9:09 PM: How has neither Mississippi Senate race been called yet?
9:13 PM: Georgia has now been called by all networks, even by the Cautious News Network.
9:14 PM: This is starting to become a very predictable election.
9:17 PM: IN-03 called for the Republicans. No tidal wave for the Democrats this year.
9:17 PM: Though while I say that, Fox calls FL-24 for the Dems.
9:18 PM: New Mexico for Obama, according to Fox
9:18 PM: Fox News has projected that Obama has won Ohio.
9:20 PM: How has North Dakota been called and not South Dakota?
9:24 PM: And now ABC has called Ohio.
9:27 PM: And now everyone except for one (I wonder who) has called Ohio for Obama.
9:28 PM: No states lose their polls at 9:300. This is nice.
9:29 PM: NBC has West Virginia too close to call. It appears that race isn't as big a factor as previously thought.
9:29 PM: Virginia is neck-and-neck, while Obama has a slight lead in North Carolina.
9:31 PM: 71% of precincts reporting in Virginia, as opposed to 23% in Fairfax County.
9:32 PM: People are very hesitant to call states this time around.
9:34 PM: Pennsylvania is completely blue, according to CNN.
9:35 PM: And now CNN has called Ohio. Fat ladies, you may now sing.
9:37 PM: NBC calls Kentucky Senate for McConnell. The Democrats' path to 60 seats has been narrowed.
9:39 PM: Senate map updated.
9:40 PM: NBC and CNN have finally called West Virginia for McCain.
9:41 PM: Of note: No one has called Virginia, Mississippi, Texas, South Dakota, or Nebraska.
9:47 PM: And now Texas is being called for McCain.
9:50 PM: Current electoral tally: Obama 200, McCain 124.
9:51 PM: ABC has finally called Mississippi for McCain. That took a lot longer than expected.
9:54 PM: 10:00 poll closings: Iowa, Utah, Montana, Nevada, and parts of Idaho and Oregon.
9:57 PM: Mississippi exit polls: Whites voteed for McCain 82/17, African-Americans voted for Obama 99/1 (!)
9:59 PM: The lull before the storm...
10:00 PM: And it's 10:00!
10:01 PM: Iowa and Utah have been called by all.
10:03 PM: Many very tight races in Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri.
10:03 PM: Also, not a lot of the vote in for Colorado and Arizona.
10:05 PM: Obama is holding his own in Nebraska and South Dakota, though I have a feeling that a lot of the vote is coming in from the cities.
10:09 PM: Also, there are now no more Republican congressmen in New England.
10:10 PM: Meanwhile, the referendum in South Dakota on banning abortion has failed.
10:13 PM: Obama has a big lead in Orange County, Florida. It went about 50/50 four years ago.
10:15 PM: MSNBC is going to wait until all the votes are in before calling Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana.
10:20 PM: Obama is at 207. With California, 262. With Oregon, 269. With Washington, 280. With Hawaii, 284. There's no way McCain can win unless Arnold Schwarzenegger blows up California.
10:28 PM: North Carolina is now 3000 votes apart.
10:31 PM: Meanwhile, Obama is winning the city of Staunton by 11 votes.
10:33 PM: ABC has called Nebraska for McCain, though I'm not sure about NE-02.
10:34 PM: In more detail: Nebraska and Maine has a system in which the winner of the state gets two electoral votes while the winner of each congressional district gets one electoral vote each.
10:35 PM: Nebraska's second district is mainly the city of Omaha, which could potentially go for Obama.
10:39 PM: McCain now has a tiny lead in North Carolina.
10:44 PM: And in about 16 minutes, polls will close in Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, and Hawaii.
10:46 PM: It looks like Virginia will be close, but Fairfax County might just eke out an Obama win.
10:47 PM: CNN has way too much money in its technology budget. will.i.am is appearing in the CNN newsroom via hologram.
10:49 PM: Congrats to Rupiah Banda, the new President of Zambia.
10:51 PM: Palm Beach County is only at 27% reporting out of 80% reporting for the state. This bodes well for Obama.
10:53 PM: Nebraska and South Dakota have both been called for McCain by everyone. Well, everyone except for CNN.
10:55 PM: Mississippi's special Senate election has been called. If the Democrats are to hit 60 seats in the Senate, they will have to win Minnesota and Georgia.
10:59 PM: Also, neither Colorado nor Louisiana have been called in the Senate races yet. The Democrats probably aren't very glad about that.
11:00 PM: Congratulations, President-elect Obama.
11:03 PM: California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and Virginia have all been called for Obama.
11:05 PM: Current tally: Obama 297, McCain 147.
11:05 PM: And now the AP has called Florida for Obama.
11:11 PM: Another note: Obama is leading in NE-02. Please make a note of it.
11:12 PM: Now that the President has been decided, there still remains the issue of the Senate and the House.
11:14 PM: And now Colorado is going for Obama. Now that a winner has been decided, there's less need to be as cautious.
11:17 PM: In the Senate, Democrats have won Colorado and Louisiana while Republicans have won Idaho.
11:19 PM: McCain has just conceded to Obama.
11:19 PM: Also, McCain at least got his home state of Arizona, according to CBS.
11:22 PM: Currently, Obama is up only 3% in the popular vote, but there's a lot of votes that still need counting.
11:27 PM: And now Nevada has been called for Obama.
11:31 PM: So far the only states yet to be called for the Presidential race are North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and Alaska.
11:32 PM: On the Senate side of things, Georgia, Minnesota, Oregon, and Alaska are still up for grabs.
11:43 PM: I am going to take a quick break.
11:58 PM: Alaska will not close polls until 1:00 AM, though I doubt there will be much surprise there.
12:07 AM: It appears that the Democrats will gain a net of around 15-25 seats, around expected.
12:08 AM: Also, everyone now agrees on the electoral vote count.
12:24 AM: Obama has hit 50 million in the popular vote, and he's going to get over 15 million more from California alone.
12:31 AM: My guess is that Obama will win Indiana and North Carolina while McCain wins Missouri. I have no clue how Montana will turn out.
12:41 AM: The Oregon Senate has been surprisingly close.
12:45 AM: It looks like a total of about 135,000,000 votes were cast in the election.
12:48 AM: Alaska closes in about 12 minutes. After the races there are called, I will probably sign off until the morning.
1:23 AM: Well, Alaska is going for McCain. Democrats have picked up 5 seats in the Senate right now, and two more will probably flip their way. Meanwhile, they have picked up 16 seats in the House, and probably several more. It's been a good night for liberals, but it's not a dream come true.
1:24 AM: And it is getting late, and so I'll be seeing you on the flip side in about five hours. Good night, everyone.
6:11 AM: Well, my prediction is finally wrong. McCain won Montana, though I'll be quick to add that it wasn't be a majority. Meanwhile Missouri is too close to call, with Obama being down by 0.2% with all of the precincts in. North Carolina's the same way; McCain is down by 0.3%, but provisional ballots have yet to be counted. Meanwhile Indiana has been called for Obama, but not by all.
6:20 AM: Senateside, Oregon is 73% in and it is still a tight race. Meanwhile, Chambliss is holding on to Georgia, but he is right on the 50% line, and if he doesn't get a majority, there will be a runoff election. As for Minnesota, there is an 1800-vote difference between the two candidates. Finally, Ted Stevens is just holding on in Alaska, but just barely and not by enough for it to be called. I have a feeling that he wished he was allowed to vote.
6:24 AM: Finally, the Democrats have a 251-173 advantage in the House with 11 districts yet to be decided.
10:38 AM: Breaking news from Minnesota: the AP has uncalled the race for Coleman. The two major candidates differ by about 500 votes, and there will be a mandatory recount there. It looks like we won't know the final results for a long time.
1:30 PM: Well, it looks like Georgia Senate will be headed to a runoff. So there will be one more election on December 2nd.
6:33 PM: All right. It looks like NC-Pres, MO-Pres, NE-02-Pres, and AK-Sen will not be resolved until absentee, early, and provisional ballots have all been counted. Meanwhile, there is still a good deal of the vote to be counted for OR-Sen. MN-Sen has been fully counted, and there is a difference of about 700 votes, which means there will be an automatic recount, and so we probably won't know the final results until December. And lastly, Chambliss has gotten 49.9% of the vote for GA-Sen, which means that there will be a runoff election on December 2nd.
6:43 PM: And so, with it seeming that little will be determined in the near future, I am officially saying goodbye. It was fun running this little thing, and I hope you enjoyed it. Maybe I'll see you around in four years.
